GBPackers
1-0
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
034
ATLFalcons
1-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
3
13
23
Falcons
7
17
4
0
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
364
Total Plays
69
58
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.21
Passing Yards
308
223
Comp/Att
33/51(65%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.31
Rushing Yards
59
141
Rush Attempts
15
27
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
18
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.36
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-35
-29
Sack EPA
-10.52
-6.79
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
70
34
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-5.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+67.2
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
+36.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
26
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
17
9
EPA
EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
2
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
28
30
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
4
2
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
26
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18
EPA
EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
20
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
28
4th Down Efficiency
24
31
RZ Efficiency
26
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U