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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ falcons week 2, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
1-0
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
34
ATLFalcons
1-0
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
3
13
23
Falcons
7
17
4
0
28

Spread

ATL logo
-3

Total

OVER
55

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
367
364
Total Plays
69
58
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.21
Passing Yards
308
223
Comp/Att
33/51(65%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.31
Rushing Yards
59
141
Rush Attempts
15
27
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
18
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.36
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-35
-29
Sack EPA
-10.52
-6.79
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
70
34
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-5.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,598
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+68.1
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+4.8
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
+21.0
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
11/28
9.8
96
12/04
3.0
72
12/11
5.7
85
12/18
-2.5
30
12/24
10.5
97
01/01
9.2
95
01/08
5.2
83
01/15
2.7
70
01/22
4.8
82
09/10
-0.1
51
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
11/27
2.7
70
12/04
1.1
57
12/11
2.2
66
12/18
4.1
79
12/24
4.0
78
01/01
9.2
95
01/14
6.0
86
01/22
15.1
100
02/05
1.1
57
09/10
3.2
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Packers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
26
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
20
Rushing Yards / Game
17
9

EPA

EPA / Play
17
21
EPA / Pass
23
18
EPA / Rush
2
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
28
30
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
17
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
4
2
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Falcons logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
26
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
18

EPA

EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
20
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
8
18
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
28
4th Down Efficiency
24
31
RZ Efficiency
26
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
14
W
W
U
12/04
8
W
W
U
12/11
28
W
W
O
12/18
3
W
L
O
12/24
13
W
W
O
01/01
7
W
W
O
01/08
25
W
W
O
01/15
3
W
W
O
01/22
-23
L
L
O
09/10
8
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
19
W
W
O
12/04
-1
L
L
O
12/11
28
W
W
O
12/18
28
W
W
O
12/24
17
W
W
O
01/01
6
W
L
O
01/14
16
W
W
O
01/22
23
W
W
O
02/05
-6
L
L
O
09/10
6
W
L
U