GBPackers
1-0
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
025
ATLFalcons
1-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
14
0
24
Falcons
3
6
3
13
25
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
224
446
Total Plays
47
78
Yards / Play
4.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.05
Passing Yards
140
235
Comp/Att
14/25(56%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.10
Rushing Yards
84
211
Rush Attempts
21
45
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
27
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
15
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
15
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.19
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-2
Sack EPA
-1.84
-1.08
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
40
110
Penalty EPA
-5.03
-10.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model57.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,551
Home Field
+50.7
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-6.2
Home QB Adjustment
-15.0
Away QB Adjustment
-8.8
Market Regression
+64.7
Final Difference
54.9
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Value
Ptile
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-15.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
17
Yards / Game
10
10
Passing Yards / Game
25
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19
EPA
EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
2
14
EPA / Rush
14
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
5
21
Turnover EPA / Game
30
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
17
4
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
13
Yards / Game
17
22
Passing Yards / Game
27
26
Rushing Yards / Game
8
28
EPA
EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
23
23
EPA / Rush
25
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
27
28
Fumbles / Game
22
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
28
4th Down Efficiency
29
5
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U