GBPackers
4-0
25
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
014
ATLFalcons
2-2
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
6
9
10
25
Falcons
7
7
0
0
14
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
426
251
Total Plays
64
55
Yards / Play
6.7
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.11
Passing Yards
369
156
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.07
Rushing Yards
57
95
Rush Attempts
20
22
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.44
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
60%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.77
-5.86
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-11
Sack EPA
-6.00
-1.65
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
55
--
Penalty EPA
-5.22
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
Falcons+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-75
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,663
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-29.4
Home QB Adjustment
+3.5
Away QB Adjustment
+32.9
Market Regression
+7.9
Final Difference
-112.0
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.9
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
17
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
1
8
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7
EPA
EPA / Play
2
14
EPA / Pass
1
16
EPA / Rush
16
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
4
17
Turnover EPA / Game
31
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
27
RZ Efficiency
1
8
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
24
32
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13
EPA
EPA / Play
13
23
EPA / Pass
9
23
EPA / Rush
23
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
27
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
13
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-2-2
O/U