GBPackers
7-3
17
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
8-2
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
0
7
7
17
Falcons
3
7
0
10
20
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
418
294
Total Plays
59
57
Yards / Play
7.1
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.15
Passing Yards
341
177
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
24/28(86%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.52
+0.26
Rushing Yards
77
117
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.67
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-20
Sack EPA
-1.13
-4.10
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
66
50
Penalty EPA
-4.36
-7.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+18.3
Home QB Adjustment
+28.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.6
Market Regression
+2.5
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
9
19
Passing Yards / Game
7
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
10
EPA
EPA / Play
4
10
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
11
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
21
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
19
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
16
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
14
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
15
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U