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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ falcons week 19, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
11-6
48
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
21
ATLFalcons
13-3
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
22
14
6
42
Falcons
7
7
0
7
21

Spread

GB logo
+1

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
442
194
Total Plays
69
48
Yards / Play
6.4
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.36
-0.16
Passing Yards
346
149
Comp/Att
31/36(86%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.72
-0.45
Rushing Yards
96
45
Rush Attempts
31
14
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
28
15
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
67%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-0.83
-19.56
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-20
-37
Sack EPA
-3.25
-5.55
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
65
32
Penalty EPA
-5.00
-7.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,642
Home Field
+91.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+15.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
10/24
3.0
70
10/31
-4.7
19
11/07
11.4
99
11/21
8.6
94
11/28
10.5
98
12/05
7.2
91
12/12
-7.0
10
12/26
13.0
99
01/02
0.3
51
01/09
2.7
67
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.2
Value
Ptile
10/24
8.6
94
11/07
4.4
79
11/11
7.6
92
11/21
6.8
90
11/28
4.4
78
12/05
-2.1
35
12/12
-2.1
35
12/19
-0.4
46
12/27
-0.1
48
01/02
5.2
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Packers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
9
19
Passing Yards / Game
7
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
10

EPA

EPA / Play
4
10
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
11
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
21
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Falcons logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
19
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12

EPA

EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
16
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
14
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
15
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
6
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
9
W
W
U
11/07
38
W
W
O
11/21
28
W
W
U
11/28
-3
L
L
U
12/05
18
W
W
O
12/12
-4
L
L
U
12/19
-4
L
W
O
12/26
28
W
W
O
01/02
7
W
L
U
01/09
5
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-2-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
7
W
W
O
11/07
6
W
L
O
11/11
5
W
W
O
11/21
17
W
W
O
11/28
3
W
W
U
12/05
4
W
W
O
12/12
21
W
W
P
12/19
16
W
W
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/02
21
W
W
P