GBPackers
11-6
48
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
021
ATLFalcons
13-3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
22
14
6
42
Falcons
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
194
Total Plays
69
48
Yards / Play
6.4
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.36
-0.16
Passing Yards
346
149
Comp/Att
31/36(86%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
9.6
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.72
-0.45
Rushing Yards
96
45
Rush Attempts
31
14
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
15
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
67%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-0.83
-19.56
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-20
-37
Sack EPA
-3.25
-5.55
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
65
32
Penalty EPA
-5.00
-7.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,640
Home Field
+91.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+15.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
6
Yards / Game
9
19
Passing Yards / Game
7
29
Rushing Yards / Game
24
10
EPA
EPA / Play
4
10
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
11
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
21
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
19
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
14
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
7
1
EPA / Rush
16
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
14
Interceptions / Game
4
1
Fumbles / Game
15
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
6-2-2
O/U