GBPackers
12-6
21
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
044
ATLFalcons
12-5
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
15
6
21
Falcons
10
14
13
7
44
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
59.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
493
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
5.6
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.44
Passing Yards
268
--
Comp/Att
27/45(60%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.82
Rushing Yards
101
101
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
30
Passing 1st downs
18
22
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
77%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.36
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-3.42
--
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
63
31
Penalty EPA
-6.15
-5.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+165
Home nfelo
1,670
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+67.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
+32.0
Market Regression
+7.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+32.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
31
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17
EPA
EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
8
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
12
15
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
7
32
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
4
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
4
22
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
9
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Falcons
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U