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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ falcons week 20, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
12-6
21
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
44
ATLFalcons
12-5
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
15
6
21
Falcons
10
14
13
7
44

Spread

ATL logo
-6

Total

OVER
59.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
369
493
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
5.6
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.44
Passing Yards
268
--
Comp/Att
27/45(60%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.82
Rushing Yards
101
101
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
24
30
Passing 1st downs
18
22
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
77%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.36
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-3.42
--
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
63
31
Penalty EPA
-6.15
-5.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,670
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+67.9
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.9
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
+32.0
Market Regression
+6.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+32.0
Value
Ptile
11/13
1.0
57
11/20
8.0
92
11/28
9.8
96
12/04
3.0
72
12/11
5.7
85
12/18
-2.5
30
12/24
10.5
97
01/01
9.2
95
01/08
5.2
83
01/15
2.7
70
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Value
Ptile
10/30
8.1
93
11/03
8.0
92
11/13
-2.2
33
11/27
2.7
70
12/04
1.1
57
12/11
2.2
66
12/18
4.1
79
12/24
4.0
78
01/01
9.2
95
01/14
6.0
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Packers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
7
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
31
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17

EPA

EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
8
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
12
15
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
29
RZ Efficiency
7
32
Falcons Offense vs Packers Defense
Falcons logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10

EPA

EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
4
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
3
8
Fumbles / Game
4
22
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
26
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
9
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-22
L
L
O
11/20
-18
L
L
O
11/28
14
W
W
U
12/04
8
W
W
U
12/11
28
W
W
O
12/18
3
W
L
O
12/24
13
W
W
O
01/01
7
W
W
O
01/08
25
W
W
O
01/15
3
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
1
W
L
O
11/03
15
W
W
O
11/13
-9
L
L
U
11/27
19
W
W
O
12/04
-1
L
L
O
12/11
28
W
W
O
12/18
28
W
W
O
12/24
17
W
W
O
01/01
6
W
L
O
01/14
16
W
W
O