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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ jaguars week 1, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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GB logo
GBPackers
-
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
90°F
3 mph
23
JAXJaguars
-
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
90°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
14
3
3
27
Jaguars
7
10
3
3
23

Spread

GB logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
294
348
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.09
Passing Yards
199
300
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.11
Rushing Yards
95
48
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.58
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
-0.56
-5.61
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
24
79
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-5.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-84
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+69.5
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.6
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.9
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Value
Ptile
11/15
1.1
57
11/22
-1.8
37
11/26
-3.5
26
12/03
3.3
75
12/13
2.4
67
12/20
-4.3
19
12/27
-10.7
1
01/03
-2.8
31
01/10
-0.1
50
01/16
1.4
61
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Value
Ptile
10/25
-5.0
16
11/08
-1.1
43
11/15
-5.1
14
11/19
-2.6
31
11/29
2.7
71
12/06
8.1
94
12/13
3.6
76
12/20
3.7
77
12/27
4.5
80
01/03
-12.5
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Packers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
4
24
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
6
1
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18

EPA

EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
3
9
EPA / Rush
8
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
7
32
Fumbles / Game
12
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
7
14
Jaguars Offense vs Packers Defense
Jaguars logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
25
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10

EPA

EPA / Play
24
31
EPA / Pass
28
28
EPA / Rush
25
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
27
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
26
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
11
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-2
L
L
U
11/22
17
W
W
U
11/26
-4
L
L
U
12/03
4
W
W
O
12/13
21
W
W
U
12/20
10
W
W
O
12/27
-30
L
L
U
01/03
-7
L
L
U
01/10
17
W
W
O
01/16
-6
L
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
3
W
W
O
11/08
-5
L
W
O
11/15
2
W
W
U
11/19
6
W
W
U
11/29
-6
L
L
O
12/06
-3
L
P
O
12/13
35
W
W
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
-11
L
L
O
01/03
-24
L
L
U