GBPackers
-
27
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
90°F
3 mph
23
JAXJaguars
-
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
90°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
14
3
3
27
Jaguars
7
10
3
3
23
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
348
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.09
Passing Yards
199
300
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.11
Rushing Yards
95
48
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.58
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
-0.56
-5.61
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
24
79
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-5.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-83
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+68.6
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-5.9
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
24
Yards / Game
7
6
Passing Yards / Game
6
1
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18
EPA
EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
3
9
EPA / Rush
8
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
7
32
Fumbles / Game
12
24
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
9
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
7
14
Jaguars Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
25
Yards / Game
22
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
31
EPA / Pass
28
28
EPA / Rush
25
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
11
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
27
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
26
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U