GBPackers
5-2
30
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
84°F
4 mph
27
JAXJaguars
2-5
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
84°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
13
7
10
30
Jaguars
0
10
7
10
27
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
390
Total Plays
67
56
Yards / Play
6.3
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.09
Passing Yards
252
299
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.17
Rushing Yards
170
91
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
27%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
3
1
3rd Down Attempts
11
9
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.24
-8.15
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
-0.96
-5.05
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
--
59
Penalty EPA
--
-10.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model61.0%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,579
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
-3.9
Final Difference
-77.7
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
27
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
29
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
8
32
EPA / Rush
8
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
20
30
Fumbles / Game
19
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
26
4th Down Efficiency
23
17
RZ Efficiency
10
20
Jaguars Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
22
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7
EPA
EPA / Play
18
5
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
16
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
22
3
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
23
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
22
RZ Efficiency
13
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U