GBPackers
4-3
9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
15 mph
0
NYJJets
5-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
0
0
6
9
Jets
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
237
360
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
3.8
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.31
Passing Yards
156
241
Comp/Att
15/34(44%)
16/38(42%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.20
Rushing Yards
81
119
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
15
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
14%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.33
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-15
Sack EPA
-1.65
-2.92
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
15
55
Penalty EPA
-2.94
-6.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,614
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+113.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
5
Yards / Game
9
3
Passing Yards / Game
7
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
3
9
EPA / Rush
11
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
29
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
15
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
4
25
Jets Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
12
5
Passing Yards / Game
27
14
Rushing Yards / Game
4
12
EPA
EPA / Play
15
4
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
6
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
14
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
5
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
21
4
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U