GBPackers
6-4
34
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
012
DETLions
2-8
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
13
14
1
28
Lions
7
0
0
3
10
Spread
-11.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
422
272
Total Plays
67
68
Yards / Play
6.3
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.37
Passing Yards
342
199
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
20/43(47%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.60
Rushing Yards
80
73
Rush Attempts
27
23
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
56%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-8.60
-22.49
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-14
Sack EPA
-3.64
-1.12
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
57
28
Penalty EPA
-6.70
-2.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market83.2%
Model83.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-243
Home nfelo
1,266
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
+15.0
Market Regression
-1.1
Final Difference
-277.9
Model Spread
+11.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.0
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
29
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
5
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
9
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
25
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
7
17
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
15
Yards / Game
26
3
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
25
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
9
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
24
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U