GBPackers
7-4
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
023
DETLions
4-7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
14
13
27
Lions
17
0
3
3
23
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
306
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.11
Passing Yards
243
205
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.12
Rushing Yards
67
101
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
25%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.10
-6.44
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-27
-15
Sack EPA
-5.53
-9.27
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
55
108
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-10.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+43.6
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
-27.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.2
Time Adj
-10.8
Net QB Adjustment
+29.9
Home QB Adjustment
+16.3
Away QB Adjustment
-13.7
Market Regression
+66.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20
EPA
EPA / Play
10
24
EPA / Pass
18
23
EPA / Rush
8
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
11
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
9
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
16
7
EPA / Rush
19
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U