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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ lions week 13, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
7-4
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
23
DETLions
4-7
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
14
13
27
Lions
17
0
3
3
23

Spread

GB logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
310
306
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
4.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.11
Passing Yards
243
205
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.12
Rushing Yards
67
101
Rush Attempts
25
25
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
25%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.10
-6.44
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-27
-15
Sack EPA
-5.53
-9.27
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
55
108
Penalty EPA
-6.18
-10.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+44.0
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
-27.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.4
Time Adj
-11.0
Net QB Adjustment
+29.9
Home QB Adjustment
+16.3
Away QB Adjustment
-13.7
Market Regression
+66.8
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
Value
Ptile
09/20
5.4
84
09/28
12.3
99
10/04
1.7
63
10/11
0.0
51
10/18
0.3
52
11/01
-3.5
25
11/08
2.9
72
11/15
1.1
57
11/22
-1.8
37
11/26
-3.5
26
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+16.3
Value
Ptile
09/20
2.4
67
09/27
-2.5
33
10/05
1.3
60
10/11
-5.8
12
10/18
9.1
96
10/25
-2.4
33
11/01
-8.2
4
11/15
2.0
65
11/22
1.0
56
11/26
10.7
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Packers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
16
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
20

EPA

EPA / Play
10
24
EPA / Pass
18
23
EPA / Rush
8
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
10
26
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Lions logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
11
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
9
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19

EPA

EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
16
7
EPA / Rush
19
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
2
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/28
10
W
W
O
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/11
14
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
L
U
11/01
-19
L
L
U
11/08
-8
L
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
U
11/22
17
W
W
U
11/26
-4
L
L
U
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
-12
L
L
U
10/05
-3
L
W
U
10/11
-25
L
L
O
10/18
3
W
L
O
10/25
-9
L
L
O
11/01
-35
L
L
O
11/15
2
W
W
U
11/22
5
W
W
U
11/26
31
W
W
O