GBPackers
8-4
3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
07
DETLions
2-10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
0
3
0
3
Lions
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
286
Total Plays
61
65
Yards / Play
4.2
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.28
Passing Yards
192
96
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
10/22(45%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.49
-0.47
Rushing Yards
66
190
Rush Attempts
20
41
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
15
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.93
-5.36
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-31
-21
Sack EPA
-5.85
-2.81
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
20
35
Penalty EPA
-1.80
-0.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
Packers-7.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-237
Home nfelo
1,373
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-45.6
Home QB Adjustment
-24.6
Away QB Adjustment
+21.0
Market Regression
+3.6
Final Difference
-204.4
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
D. Stanton
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-24.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
19
Yards / Game
9
21
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24
EPA
EPA / Play
4
11
EPA / Pass
3
6
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
7
19
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
27
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
9
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
15
5
Passing Yards / Game
6
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
19
1
EPA / Rush
17
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
14
Interceptions / Game
16
1
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U