GBPackers
9-3
31
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
034
DETLions
11-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
7
14
10
31
Lions
7
10
7
10
34
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
391
Total Plays
45
76
Yards / Play
6.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.10
Passing Yards
199
280
Comp/Att
12/20(60%)
32/41(78%)
Yards / Pass
9.9
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.29
Rushing Yards
99
111
Rush Attempts
24
34
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
27
Passing 1st downs
7
18
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
20%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
5
15
Red Zone %
80%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.59
-5.82
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-3
Sack EPA
-1.61
-1.70
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
59
56
Penalty EPA
-7.42
-8.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,691
Away nfelo
1,624
Home Field
+28.8
Base HFA
+40.0
Divisional Adj
-18.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.4
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
11
Yards / Game
7
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6
EPA
EPA / Play
9
7
EPA / Pass
8
6
EPA / Rush
8
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
24
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
4
RZ Efficiency
10
12
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
5
EPA / Pass
2
5
EPA / Rush
6
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Lions
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U