
GBPackers
9-6
31
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
9-6

TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
7
14
31
Lions
0
14
0
10
24
Spread

-3.5
Total
OVER
50
Game Statistics
General


Total Yards
450
408
Total Plays
72
64
Yards / Play
6.3
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.10
Passing Yards
297
332
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.24
Rushing Yards
153
76
Rush Attempts
31
21
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.04
Downs & Conversions


1st Downs
28
24
Passing 1st downs
17
19
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
54%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays


Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.68
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-15
Sack EPA
-1.51
-3.90
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
75
30
Penalty EPA
-4.01
-3.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner

GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-34.9
Home QB Adjustment
-4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+30.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+30.9

J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense


Total
Points / Game
4
13
Yards / Game
7
18
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
3
31
EPA / Rush
8
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
12
29
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
31
4th Down Efficiency
19
15
RZ Efficiency
7
30
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense


Total
Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
24
25
Passing Yards / Game
3
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
8
28
EPA / Rush
24
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
11
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
25
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
17
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U

Lions
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U