GBPackers
12-3
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
3-11
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
3
7
13
23
Lions
7
10
0
3
20
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
432
305
Total Plays
86
56
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.13
Passing Yards
312
134
Comp/Att
27/55(49%)
13/30(43%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.45
Rushing Yards
120
171
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
6.8
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
17
Passing 1st downs
18
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
40%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
20
12
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.33
-5.29
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-7
Sack EPA
-2.34
-1.27
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
97
50
Penalty EPA
-9.36
-7.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market85.2%
Model80.9%
Spread Pick
Lions+13.0
Expected Value
+8.0%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-207
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+49.3
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-114.6
Home QB Adjustment
-122.1
Away QB Adjustment
-7.5
Market Regression
-4.6
Final Difference
-250.3
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
D. Blough
Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-122.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
26
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
15
21
EPA
EPA / Play
7
23
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
9
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
10
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
28
4th Down Efficiency
8
14
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Lions Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
12
Yards / Game
16
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26
EPA
EPA / Play
21
18
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
27
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
14
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
13
4th Down Efficiency
24
15
RZ Efficiency
12
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
1-9
ATS
7-3
O/U