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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ panthers week 9, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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GB logo
GBPackers
6-1
29
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
10 mph
37
CARPanthers
7-0
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
7
15
29
Panthers
3
24
3
7
37

Spread

CAR logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
404
427
Total Plays
72
66
Yards / Play
5.6
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.08
Passing Yards
331
--
Comp/Att
25/48(52%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.20
Rushing Yards
71
130
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
21%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.20
-4.66
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-38
--
Sack EPA
-8.99
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
87
--
Penalty EPA
-6.72
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+73.4
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
Value
Ptile
12/28
8.2
92
01/11
6.0
87
01/18
-2.7
31
09/13
6.6
89
09/20
5.4
84
09/28
12.3
99
10/04
1.7
63
10/11
0.0
51
10/18
0.3
52
11/01
-3.5
25
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Value
Ptile
12/28
2.1
66
01/03
-0.0
49
01/10
1.6
62
09/13
-3.6
24
09/20
3.2
74
09/27
8.0
93
10/04
-1.0
44
10/18
-1.5
39
10/25
-3.1
28
11/02
-0.9
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Packers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
16
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
4

EPA

EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
18
2
EPA / Rush
8
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
19
Interceptions / Game
2
1
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Panthers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19

EPA

EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
3
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
8
8
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
8
4th Down Efficiency
9
14
RZ Efficiency
1
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
10
W
W
O
01/11
5
W
L
U
01/18
-6
L
W
O
09/13
8
W
W
O
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/28
10
W
W
O
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/11
14
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
L
U
11/01
-19
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
31
W
W
U
01/03
11
W
W
O
01/10
-14
L
L
O
09/13
11
W
W
U
09/20
7
W
W
P
09/27
5
W
L
O
10/04
14
W
W
O
10/18
4
W
W
O
10/25
11
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
L
O