GBPackers
6-1
29
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
10 mph
37
CARPanthers
7-0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
7
15
29
Panthers
3
24
3
7
37
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
404
427
Total Plays
72
66
Yards / Play
5.6
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.08
Passing Yards
331
--
Comp/Att
25/48(52%)
15/30(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.20
Rushing Yards
71
130
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
16
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
21%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.20
-4.66
Sacks
5
--
Sack Yards
-38
--
Sack EPA
-8.99
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
87
--
Penalty EPA
-6.72
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,617
Home Field
+72.8
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.1
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
22
5
Passing Yards / Game
16
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
4
EPA
EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
18
2
EPA / Rush
8
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
19
Interceptions / Game
2
1
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
26
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Panthers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
8
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19
EPA
EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
3
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
8
8
Fumbles / Game
26
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
8
4th Down Efficiency
9
14
RZ Efficiency
1
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-3-1
O/U