GBPackers
9-4
30
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
18 mph
20
OAKRaiders
6-7
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
8
0
10
6
24
Raiders
0
13
7
0
20
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
372
Total Plays
69
75
Yards / Play
4.2
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.24
Passing Yards
190
252
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
23/47(49%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.44
Rushing Yards
103
120
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.30
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
20%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.69
-12.90
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-24
Sack EPA
-3.88
-4.93
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
75
95
Penalty EPA
-2.32
-14.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-67
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+59.6
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.8
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
-62.9
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
22
22
Passing Yards / Game
16
19
Rushing Yards / Game
9
13
EPA
EPA / Play
10
19
EPA / Pass
18
14
EPA / Rush
8
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
21
Interceptions / Game
2
15
Fumbles / Game
10
15
Turnover EPA / Game
26
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
16
10
Raiders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
11
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
28
19
EPA
EPA / Play
19
13
EPA / Pass
21
7
EPA / Rush
20
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
10
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
27
28
Turnover EPA / Game
12
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
8
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
8
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-4-2
O/U