GBPackers
1-1
36
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
017
LARRams
0-2
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
9
14
0
13
36
Rams
0
14
3
0
17
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
336
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
6.5
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.19
Passing Yards
250
187
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
10.9
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.21
Rushing Yards
152
149
Rush Attempts
37
33
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
22%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-13.35
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-2.98
-3.92
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
51
40
Penalty EPA
-6.80
-6.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
Rams+6.5
Expected Value
+1.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-107
Home nfelo
1,343
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
+3.3
Final Difference
-139.1
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
M. Bulger
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
31
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
6
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27
EPA
EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
5
30
EPA / Rush
5
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
2
31
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
29
3
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
2
EPA
EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
30
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
29
1
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
31
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Rams
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
0-2-8
O/U