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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ rams week 3, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
1-1
36
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
17
LARRams
0-2
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
9
14
0
13
36
Rams
0
14
3
0
17

Spread

GB logo
-6.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
402
336
Total Plays
62
69
Yards / Play
6.5
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.19
Passing Yards
250
187
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
10.9
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.21
Rushing Yards
152
149
Rush Attempts
37
33
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
22%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-13.35
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-2.98
-3.92
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
51
40
Penalty EPA
-6.80
-6.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-107
Home nfelo
1,343
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
+3.3
Final Difference
-139.1
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Value
Ptile
11/09
-5.3
13
11/16
4.8
83
11/24
-0.4
50
11/30
6.4
88
12/07
2.1
66
12/14
0.5
55
12/22
3.1
73
12/28
3.5
75
09/13
-2.5
34
09/20
-1.2
42
M. Bulger headshot

M. Bulger

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Value
Ptile
11/09
-7.6
7
11/16
-1.8
38
11/23
-5.4
13
11/30
-9.2
3
12/07
-1.9
37
12/14
0.1
53
12/21
-3.9
22
12/28
-1.1
44
09/13
-5.4
17
09/20
-1.3
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Packers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
2
31
Yards / Game
3
29
Passing Yards / Game
1
6
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27

EPA

EPA / Play
4
31
EPA / Pass
5
30
EPA / Rush
5
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
7
Interceptions / Game
2
31
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Rams logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
29
3
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
2

EPA

EPA / Play
32
5
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
30
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
29
1
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
31
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-1
L
W
P
11/16
34
W
W
P
11/24
-22
L
L
P
11/30
-4
L
L
P
12/07
-3
L
L
P
12/14
-4
L
L
P
12/22
-3
L
W
P
12/28
10
W
L
P
09/13
6
W
W
U
09/20
-7
L
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
0-2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
-44
L
L
P
11/16
-19
L
L
P
11/23
-24
L
L
P
11/30
-4
L
W
P
12/07
-24
L
L
P
12/14
-3
L
L
P
12/21
-1
L
W
P
12/28
-4
L
W
P
09/13
-28
L
L
U
09/20
-2
L
W
U