GBPackers
3-3
30
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
020
LARRams
3-3
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
10
0
7
13
30
Rams
3
3
0
14
20
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
354
Total Plays
66
59
Yards / Play
6.1
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.00
Passing Yards
332
246
Comp/Att
30/37(81%)
21/34(62%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.63
-0.08
Rushing Yards
70
108
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
60%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.32
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-10
-9
Sack EPA
-3.31
-3.36
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
30
30
Penalty EPA
-4.05
-5.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-166
Home nfelo
1,403
Away nfelo
1,647
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+9.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
15
13
Passing Yards / Game
8
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15
EPA
EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
5
9
EPA / Rush
20
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
20
Interceptions / Game
1
11
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
32
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
13
4th Down Efficiency
9
6
RZ Efficiency
2
9
Rams Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
22
16
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
25
EPA
EPA / Play
25
19
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
22
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
12
10
Fumbles / Game
9
29
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
19
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
19
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Rams
3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U