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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ ravens week 15, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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GB logo
GBPackers
10-3
31
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
43°F
11 mph
30
BALRavens
8-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
43°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
14
7
10
31
Ravens
7
7
3
13
30

Spread

BAL logo
+9

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
346
354
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
5.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.20
Passing Yards
250
211
Comp/Att
23/31(74%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.62
+0.09
Rushing Yards
96
143
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.39
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
20
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
56%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
80%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-4
Sack EPA
-2.75
-2.73
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
76
56
Penalty EPA
-6.36
-8.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+6.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-215
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,648
Home Field
+43.4
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.9
Time Adj
-6.7
Net QB Adjustment
-192.8
Home QB Adjustment
-174.2
Away QB Adjustment
+18.6
Market Regression
-370.6
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
Value
Ptile
09/26
3.4
77
10/03
1.6
64
10/10
2.4
71
10/17
2.7
73
10/24
4.5
82
10/28
-0.1
52
11/14
-1.6
41
11/21
10.6
97
11/28
6.7
90
12/12
7.8
93
T. Huntley headshot

T. Huntley

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-174.2
Value
Ptile
11/21
-5.1
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Packers logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
8
29
Rushing Yards / Game
19
2

EPA

EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
7
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
1
27
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
3
4th Down Efficiency
9
23
RZ Efficiency
18
12
Ravens Offense vs Packers Defense
Ravens logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
10
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10

EPA

EPA / Play
16
22
EPA / Pass
20
7
EPA / Rush
8
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
28
7
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
13
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
10
W
W
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/17
10
W
W
U
10/24
14
W
W
U
10/28
3
W
W
U
11/07
-6
L
W
U
11/14
17
W
W
U
11/21
-3
L
L
O
11/28
8
W
W
O
12/12
15
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
16
W
W
U
10/11
6
W
L
O
10/17
28
W
W
U
10/24
-24
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/11
-12
L
L
U
11/21
3
W
L
U
11/28
6
W
W
U
12/05
-1
L
L
U
12/12
-2
L
W
O