GBPackers
10-3
31
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
43°F
11 mph
30
BALRavens
8-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
43°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
14
7
10
31
Ravens
7
7
3
13
30
Spread
+9
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
354
Total Plays
59
68
Yards / Play
5.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.20
Passing Yards
250
211
Comp/Att
23/31(74%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.62
+0.09
Rushing Yards
96
143
Rush Attempts
25
26
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
24
Passing 1st downs
20
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
56%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
80%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-4
Sack EPA
-2.75
-2.73
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
76
56
Penalty EPA
-6.36
-8.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+6.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-215
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,648
Home Field
+43.4
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.9
Time Adj
-6.7
Net QB Adjustment
-192.8
Home QB Adjustment
-174.2
Away QB Adjustment
+18.6
Market Regression
-370.6
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
T. Huntley
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-174.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
8
29
Rushing Yards / Game
19
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
23
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
7
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
1
27
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
3
4th Down Efficiency
9
23
RZ Efficiency
18
12
Ravens Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
10
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
22
EPA / Pass
20
7
EPA / Rush
8
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
20
Interceptions / Game
28
7
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
13
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U