GBPackers
3-5
19
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
50°F
5 mph
23
PITSteelers
5-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
50°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
6
6
0
19
Steelers
7
10
3
3
23
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
399
324
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
6.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.12
Passing Yards
283
119
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.25
Rushing Yards
116
205
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
20%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.05
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-7
Sack EPA
-1.30
-1.49
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
32
27
Penalty EPA
-5.85
-2.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+51.6
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+2.6
Home QB Adjustment
-15.5
Away QB Adjustment
-18.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-18.1
K. Pickett
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-15.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
25
23
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21
EPA
EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
14
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
25
22
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
28
EPA
EPA / Play
25
25
EPA / Pass
24
23
EPA / Rush
20
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
5
28
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
27
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
25
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U