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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ steelers week 10, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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GB logo
GBPackers
3-5
19
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
50°F
5 mph
23
PITSteelers
5-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
50°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
6
6
0
19
Steelers
7
10
3
3
23

Spread

PIT logo
-3

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
399
324
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
6.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.12
Passing Yards
283
119
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
14/23(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.25
Rushing Yards
116
205
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
20%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.05
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-7
Sack EPA
-1.30
-1.49
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
32
27
Penalty EPA
-5.85
-2.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+44.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+2.5
Home QB Adjustment
-15.3
Away QB Adjustment
-17.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-17.9
Value
Ptile
11/07
-4.3
23
09/10
3.1
70
09/17
1.3
58
09/24
2.3
65
09/28
-5.9
15
10/09
-8.6
6
10/22
1.7
60
10/29
-3.6
26
11/05
-0.6
45
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.3
Value
Ptile
01/01
-3.4
26
01/08
-1.7
40
09/10
-5.4
17
09/18
-4.3
23
09/24
0.7
54
10/01
-7.1
10
10/08
-2.8
30
10/22
0.1
50
10/29
-5.2
18
11/02
-0.2
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Packers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
25
23
Rushing Yards / Game
14
21

EPA

EPA / Play
5
10
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
14
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
11
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Steelers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
25
22
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
28

EPA

EPA / Play
25
25
EPA / Pass
24
23
EPA / Rush
20
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
5
28
Fumbles / Game
8
12
Turnover EPA / Game
27
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
25
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
24
W
W
O
01/08
-4
L
L
U
09/10
18
W
W
O
09/17
-1
L
W
O
09/24
1
W
W
U
09/28
-14
L
L
O
10/09
-4
L
L
U
10/22
-2
L
L
U
10/29
-14
L
L
U
11/05
17
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
3
W
W
U
01/08
14
W
W
O
09/10
-23
L
L
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/24
5
W
W
U
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/22
7
W
W
U
10/29
-10
L
L
U
11/02
4
W
W
U