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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ steelers week 15, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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GB logo
GBPackers
9-4
36
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
30°F
10 mph
37
PITSteelers
6-7
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
30°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
0
22
36
Steelers
14
7
3
13
37

Spread

GB logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
438
537
Total Plays
62
70
Yards / Play
7.1
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.29
Passing Yards
378
472
Comp/Att
26/49(53%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.56
Rushing Yards
60
65
Rush Attempts
12
19
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
63%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
10
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-31
Sack EPA
-1.57
-5.25
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
53
84
Penalty EPA
-2.81
-10.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,573
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
10/05
1.6
61
10/18
2.6
66
10/25
8.6
94
11/01
5.5
85
11/08
-5.1
20
11/15
2.1
64
11/22
7.7
91
11/26
8.4
93
12/07
5.0
82
12/13
-2.8
32
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Value
Ptile
09/27
4.7
80
10/04
6.4
87
10/11
2.1
64
10/18
5.2
83
10/25
-3.4
28
11/09
2.5
66
11/15
-7.3
9
11/22
7.0
89
12/06
4.7
80
12/10
-8.8
5

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Packers logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
3
6
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5

EPA

EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
5
13
EPA / Rush
5
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
2
Interceptions / Game
2
25
Fumbles / Game
11
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
30
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Steelers logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
15
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
10
Rushing Yards / Game
20
2

EPA

EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
14
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
26
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-7
L
L
O
10/18
26
W
W
U
10/25
28
W
W
U
11/01
-12
L
L
O
11/08
-10
L
L
O
11/15
10
W
W
U
11/22
6
W
P
O
11/26
22
W
W
U
12/07
13
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
10
W
W
O
10/11
8
W
L
O
10/18
13
W
L
O
10/25
10
W
W
U
11/09
18
W
W
U
11/15
-6
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
-3
L
W
O
12/06
-3
L
L
O
12/10
-7
L
L
U