GBPackers
9-4
36
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
30°F
10 mph
37
PITSteelers
6-7
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
30°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
7
0
22
36
Steelers
14
7
3
13
37
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
438
537
Total Plays
62
70
Yards / Play
7.1
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.36
+0.29
Passing Yards
378
472
Comp/Att
26/49(53%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.56
Rushing Yards
60
65
Rush Attempts
12
19
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
28
Passing 1st downs
15
20
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
63%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
10
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-31
Sack EPA
-1.57
-5.25
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
53
84
Penalty EPA
-2.81
-10.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-8.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
3
6
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
22
EPA / Pass
5
13
EPA / Rush
5
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
2
Interceptions / Game
2
25
Fumbles / Game
11
16
Turnover EPA / Game
28
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
30
RZ Efficiency
7
6
Steelers Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
15
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
10
Rushing Yards / Game
20
2
EPA
EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
14
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
4
RZ Efficiency
26
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U