GBPackers
4-4
25
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
3 mph
47
TENTitans
4-5
TBD
Nissan Stadium
56°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
16
9
0
25
Titans
21
14
6
6
47
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
446
Total Plays
74
60
Yards / Play
5.4
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.42
Passing Yards
333
292
Comp/Att
32/55(58%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
10.4
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.81
Rushing Yards
69
154
Rush Attempts
14
31
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.82
+4.91
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-46
-13
Sack EPA
-8.24
-2.40
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
92
65
Penalty EPA
-13.65
-1.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.1
Home QB Adjustment
+29.9
Away QB Adjustment
+18.8
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+29.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
7
20
Passing Yards / Game
6
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
4
EPA
EPA / Play
3
20
EPA / Pass
3
23
EPA / Rush
8
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
7
20
Fumbles / Game
12
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
8
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Titans Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
11
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
31
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
11
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
12
8
Fumbles / Game
16
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
24
RZ Efficiency
1
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U