GBPackers
1-0
14
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
017
MINVikings
1-0
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
0
0
7
14
Vikings
0
10
7
0
17
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
263
284
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
4.1
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.12
Passing Yards
180
254
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.19
Rushing Yards
83
30
Rush Attempts
23
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
1.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.50
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
46%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-8.63
--
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-33
-32
Sack EPA
-12.27
-8.38
Penalties
6
13
Penalty Yards
72
137
Penalty EPA
-2.93
-13.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model47.1%
Spread Pick
Vikings+2.0
Expected Value
+1.8%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+51.9
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+40.4
Home QB Adjustment
+38.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
+7.2
Final Difference
20.0
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+38.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
4
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
3
2
EPA / Rush
8
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
7
14
Fumbles / Game
12
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
19
2
RZ Efficiency
7
13
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
25
Yards / Game
28
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
14
28
EPA / Rush
32
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
11
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
29
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
29
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
4-5-1
O/U