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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ vikings week 4, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
2-1
23
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
30
MINVikings
3-0
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
1
0
9
17
Vikings
7
14
7
0
28

Spread

MIN logo
-5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
424
334
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
6.7
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.11
Passing Yards
342
--
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.50
Rushing Yards
82
63
Rush Attempts
17
30
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.47
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
54%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.36
-8.93
Sacks
8
--
Sack Yards
-42
--
Sack EPA
-14.25
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
57
--
Penalty EPA
-3.52
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model65.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
+46.2
Final Difference
111.6
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Value
Ptile
11/16
4.8
83
11/24
-0.4
50
11/30
6.4
88
12/07
2.1
66
12/14
0.5
55
12/22
3.1
73
12/28
3.5
75
09/13
-2.5
34
09/20
-1.2
42
09/27
6.6
87
B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Value
Ptile
11/13
4.8
83
11/23
4.1
78
11/30
-4.3
20
12/07
-4.0
22
12/14
-0.2
51
12/21
-9.0
4
12/28
-4.3
19
09/13
-3.7
25
09/20
1.1
56
09/27
0.6
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1

EPA

EPA / Play
4
3
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
5
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
19
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
20
4
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
6
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2

EPA

EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
32
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
24
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
3
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
34
W
W
P
11/24
-22
L
L
P
11/30
-4
L
L
P
12/07
-3
L
L
P
12/14
-4
L
L
P
12/22
-3
L
W
P
12/28
10
W
L
P
09/13
6
W
W
U
09/20
-7
L
L
O
09/27
19
W
W
O
MIN logo

Vikings

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
18
W
W
P
11/30
20
W
W
P
12/07
4
W
L
P
12/14
21
W
W
P
12/21
-7
L
L
P
12/28
1
W
L
P
01/04
-12
L
L
P
09/13
14
W
W
O
09/20
14
W
W
U
09/27
3
W
L
O