GBPackers
2-1
23
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
030
MINVikings
3-0
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
7
1
0
9
17
Vikings
7
14
7
0
28
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
334
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
6.7
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.11
Passing Yards
342
--
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.50
Rushing Yards
82
63
Rush Attempts
17
30
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.47
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
16
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
54%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.36
-8.93
Sacks
8
--
Sack Yards
-42
--
Sack EPA
-14.25
--
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
57
--
Penalty EPA
-3.52
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
+46.2
Final Difference
111.6
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
4
3
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
5
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
19
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
20
4
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
6
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2
EPA
EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
32
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
24
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
3
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
2-1-7
O/U