GBPackers
4-1
10
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
023
MINVikings
3-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
10
0
0
10
Vikings
0
14
3
6
23
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
227
351
Total Plays
65
70
Yards / Play
3.5
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.39
-0.15
Passing Yards
155
--
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.04
Rushing Yards
72
112
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
24%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.55
-14.45
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-7.55
--
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
92
65
Penalty EPA
-8.86
-1.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-83
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-74.9
Home QB Adjustment
-70.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-70.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
2
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
2
EPA
EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
23
4
EPA / Rush
2
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
28
13
Fumbles / Game
7
32
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
1
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
4
4
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
26
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
26
25
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18
EPA
EPA / Play
11
29
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
5
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
12
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U