GBPackers
6-3
31
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
03
MINVikings
3-6
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
17
7
7
31
Vikings
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
300
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
5.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.36
Passing Yards
283
207
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
17/38(45%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.51
-0.45
Rushing Yards
91
93
Rush Attempts
30
18
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
53%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.25
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-1
Sack EPA
-4.87
-1.13
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-102
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.4
Home QB Adjustment
-18.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
-19.5
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-18.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9
EPA
EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
11
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
15
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
1
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
14
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
14
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U