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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ vikings week 11, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
6-3
31
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0
3
MINVikings
3-6
MIN logo
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
0
17
7
7
31
Vikings
3
0
0
0
3

Spread

GB logo
-3

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
374
300
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
5.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.36
Passing Yards
283
207
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
17/38(45%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.51
-0.45
Rushing Yards
91
93
Rush Attempts
30
18
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
53%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.25
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-1
Sack EPA
-4.87
-1.13
Penalties
1
6
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-105
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.4
Home QB Adjustment
-18.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
-9.9
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Value
Ptile
01/10
9.8
96
09/12
-3.5
26
09/19
9.6
97
09/27
9.5
96
10/03
-0.4
47
10/10
-0.7
45
10/17
-0.4
46
10/24
3.0
70
10/31
-4.7
19
11/07
11.4
99
B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-18.1
Value
Ptile
01/24
1.7
61
09/09
-2.2
33
09/19
-7.4
9
09/26
-4.2
22
10/11
-2.7
31
10/17
-2.2
34
10/24
-4.7
19
10/31
0.7
53
11/07
6.4
89
11/14
-6.0
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9

EPA

EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
11
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
15
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
1
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12

EPA

EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
14
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
14
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
30
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
-6
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
27
W
W
U
09/27
-3
L
L
U
10/03
2
W
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
4
W
W
O
10/31
9
W
W
U
11/07
38
W
W
O
MIN logo

Vikings

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/24
-3
L
W
O
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-4
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
O
10/24
-4
L
L
O
10/31
-10
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/14
-14
L
L
U