GBPackers
6-3
30
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
30°F
8 mph
13
MINVikings
7-2
TBD
TCF Bank Stadium
30°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
6
10
3
11
30
Vikings
6
0
7
0
13
Spread
+0
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
342
Total Plays
71
62
Yards / Play
4.5
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.14
Passing Yards
198
248
Comp/Att
16/35(46%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.11
Rushing Yards
124
94
Rush Attempts
34
18
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.46
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-16
-48
Sack EPA
-2.14
-8.53
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
--
110
Penalty EPA
--
-8.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+55.5
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
-27.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.3
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
+16.0
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
18
11
EPA / Rush
8
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
10
RZ Efficiency
16
5
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
11
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19
EPA
EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
4
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
25
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
1-8-1
O/U