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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ vikings week 11, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
8-2
31
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
34
MINVikings
4-5
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
7
7
14
31
Vikings
9
7
7
11
34

Spread

MIN logo
+1

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
467
410
Total Plays
54
67
Yards / Play
8.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.32
Passing Yards
372
318
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
11.3
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.70
+0.59
Rushing Yards
95
92
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
64%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-23
Sack EPA
-3.74
-5.10
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
92
--
Penalty EPA
-9.39
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model56.8%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-99
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,654
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
-1.5
Final Difference
-47.6
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Value
Ptile
01/24
1.4
53
09/12
-9.1
5
09/20
3.4
77
09/26
3.4
77
10/03
1.6
64
10/10
2.4
71
10/17
2.7
73
10/24
4.5
82
10/28
-0.1
52
11/14
-1.6
41
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Value
Ptile
01/03
5.6
81
09/12
4.9
83
09/19
6.8
91
09/26
8.7
94
10/03
-5.9
15
10/10
-1.4
43
10/17
10.7
97
10/31
0.1
54
11/07
3.3
76
11/14
2.9
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
26

EPA

EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
3
6
EPA / Rush
7
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
15
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10

EPA

EPA / Play
18
22
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
26
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
30
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
7
RZ Efficiency
10
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-35
L
L
U
09/20
18
W
W
O
09/26
2
W
W
O
10/03
10
W
W
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/17
10
W
W
U
10/24
14
W
W
U
10/28
3
W
W
U
11/07
-6
L
W
U
11/14
17
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
2
W
L
O
09/12
-3
L
L
O
09/19
-1
L
W
O
09/26
13
W
W
U
10/03
-7
L
L
U
10/10
2
W
L
U
10/17
6
W
W
O
10/31
-4
L
L
U
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
7
W
W
U