GBPackers
8-2
31
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
034
MINVikings
4-5
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
3
7
7
14
31
Vikings
9
7
7
11
34
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
467
410
Total Plays
54
67
Yards / Play
8.6
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.35
+0.32
Passing Yards
372
318
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
11.3
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.70
+0.59
Rushing Yards
95
92
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
64%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-23
Sack EPA
-3.74
-5.10
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
92
--
Penalty EPA
-9.39
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model57.0%
Spread Pick
Packers-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-102
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,656
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.1
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
-2.7
Final Difference
-48.8
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
26
EPA
EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
3
6
EPA / Rush
7
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
15
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10
EPA
EPA / Play
18
22
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
26
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
30
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
7
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Packers
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U