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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ vikings week 17, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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GB logo
GBPackers
7-8
33
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
10
MINVikings
7-8
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Packers
10
13
7
3
33
Vikings
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

GB logo
+0

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
470
211
Total Plays
73
52
Yards / Play
6.4
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.24
Passing Yards
--
144
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.60
Rushing Yards
177
67
Rush Attempts
39
16
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
Packers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
28
13
Passing 1st downs
17
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
64%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Packers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-2.55
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-36
Sack EPA
--
-8.54
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
32
27
Penalty EPA
-2.59
-4.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,529
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+41.1
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-103.5
Home QB Adjustment
-89.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
-14.4
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
10/22
1.7
60
10/29
-3.6
26
11/05
-0.6
45
11/12
-0.3
46
11/19
2.8
69
11/23
8.3
94
12/03
6.2
88
12/11
-1.9
37
12/17
3.9
75
12/24
4.5
78
J. Hall headshot

J. Hall

Proj. Value
-3.6
Team Elo Adj
-89.2
Value
Ptile
11/05
-4.2
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
8
12
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
25
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
6

EPA

EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
2
21
EPA / Rush
14
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
13
Yards / Game
11
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
29
28

EPA

EPA / Play
21
25
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
17
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
29
28
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
29
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-2
L
L
U
10/29
-14
L
L
U
11/05
17
W
W
U
11/12
-4
L
L
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/23
7
W
W
O
12/03
8
W
W
O
12/11
-2
L
L
O
12/17
-14
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
6-2-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/23
5
W
W
U
10/29
14
W
W
U
11/05
3
W
W
O
11/12
8
W
W
O
11/19
-1
L
W
U
11/27
-2
L
L
U
12/10
3
W
P
U
12/16
-3
L
P
O
12/24
-6
L
L
O