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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. packers @ vikings week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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GB logo
GBPackers
9-6
+7.5
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
-7.5
MINVikings
8-8
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model64.9%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.5%
Cover Probability
61.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-36
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,565
Home Field
+40.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.7
Home QB Adjustment
-52.6
Away QB Adjustment
-54.3
Market Regression
+29.9
Final Difference
107.0
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

M. Willis headshot

M. Willis

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-54.3
Value
Ptile
10/30
-9.8
2
11/06
-9.5
3
12/24
-7.1
8
09/15
2.0
63
09/22
5.0
80
12/27
12.0
99
M. Brosmer headshot

M. Brosmer

Proj. Value
-5.0
Team Elo Adj
-52.6
Value
Ptile
11/30
-14.1
0
12/25
-11.9
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
16
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22

EPA

EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
2
3
EPA / Rush
21
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
3
Interceptions / Game
3
24
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
30
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
5
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
16
1
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
29
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
15

EPA

EPA / Play
28
25
EPA / Pass
31
22
EPA / Rush
17
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
32
27
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
3
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
13
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
10
W
W
O
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/10
-3
L
L
U
11/16
7
W
L
O
11/23
17
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
W
O
12/07
7
W
W
O
12/14
-8
L
L
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
-17
L
L
O
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-27
L
L
O
11/02
3
W
W
O
11/09
-8
L
L
U
11/16
-2
L
L
U
11/23
-17
L
L
U
11/30
-26
L
L
U
12/07
31
W
W
U
12/14
8
W
W
O
12/21
3
W
W
U
12/25
13
W
W
U