CARPanthers
5-3
10
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
6 mph
9
SF49ers
6-2
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
0
3
10
49ers
3
6
0
0
9
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
250
151
Total Plays
66
52
Yards / Play
3.8
2.9
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.28
Passing Yards
141
46
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
11/22(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
2.1
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.44
Rushing Yards
109
105
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
10
Passing 1st downs
11
3
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
41%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.78
-2.53
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-28
-45
Sack EPA
-5.83
-5.88
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
-3.20
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,645
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
4
EPA
EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
5
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
22
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
1
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
10
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
15
6
49ers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
2
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
26
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
3
EPA
EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
1
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U