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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ 49ers week 10, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
5-3
10
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
6 mph
9
SF49ers
6-2
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
0
3
10
49ers
3
6
0
0
9

Spread

CAR logo
+6

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
250
151
Total Plays
66
52
Yards / Play
3.8
2.9
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.28
Passing Yards
141
46
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
11/22(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
2.1
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.44
Rushing Yards
109
105
Rush Attempts
31
24
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
15
10
Passing 1st downs
11
3
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
41%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
1
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.78
-2.53
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-28
-45
Sack EPA
-5.83
-5.88
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
-3.20
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+146
Home nfelo
1,644
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
12/23
1.2
58
12/30
-3.2
28
09/08
2.2
65
09/15
-4.9
19
09/22
5.0
83
10/06
-9.8
3
10/13
8.8
93
10/20
2.1
65
10/24
5.3
84
11/03
0.3
52
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Value
Ptile
01/20
3.3
71
02/03
5.2
82
09/08
10.2
96
09/15
-6.8
12
09/22
-7.9
8
09/26
0.2
51
10/06
-2.0
39
10/13
1.0
57
10/20
3.9
77
10/27
6.9
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Panthers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
3
Yards / Game
26
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
4

EPA

EPA / Play
13
4
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
5
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
22
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
1
26
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
10
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
15
6
49ers Offense vs Panthers Defense
49ers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
2
Yards / Game
24
3
Passing Yards / Game
26
17
Rushing Yards / Game
3
3

EPA

EPA / Play
11
6
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
17
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
1
RZ Efficiency
16
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
11
W
W
U
12/30
6
W
W
O
09/08
-5
L
L
U
09/15
-1
L
L
O
09/22
38
W
W
U
10/06
-16
L
L
U
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
15
W
W
O
10/24
18
W
W
O
11/03
24
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/20
4
W
W
O
02/03
-3
L
L
O
09/08
6
W
W
O
09/15
-26
L
L
U
09/22
-20
L
L
U
09/26
24
W
W
O
10/06
31
W
W
U
10/13
12
W
W
O
10/20
14
W
W
O
10/27
32
W
W
O