CARPanthers
1-3
10
TBD
Soldier Field
74°F
7 mph
36
CHIBears
2-2
TBD
Soldier Field
74°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
0
3
0
10
Bears
7
20
3
6
36
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
292
424
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
5.0
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.26
+0.18
Passing Yards
172
296
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.55
+0.47
Rushing Yards
120
128
Rush Attempts
19
39
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.14
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-22
-8
Sack EPA
-8.30
-1.97
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
18
46
Penalty EPA
-4.01
-6.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,350
Home Field
+38.0
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-85.9
Home QB Adjustment
-22.5
Away QB Adjustment
+63.4
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+63.4
C. Williams
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-22.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
29
27
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27
EPA
EPA / Play
24
17
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
22
18
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
7
3
Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
32
Yards / Game
32
32
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32
EPA
EPA / Play
27
32
EPA / Pass
26
31
EPA / Rush
20
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
24
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
12
20
RZ Efficiency
9
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
6-2-2
ATS
3-7
O/U