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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ bears week 10, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CAR logo
CARPanthers
1-7
13
TBD
Soldier Field
51°F
8 mph
16
CHIBears
2-7
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
51°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
1
3
0
3
7
Bears
3
6
7
0
16

Spread

CAR logo
CHI logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
38

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
213
295
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
3.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.15
Passing Yards
170
--
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.06
Rushing Yards
43
133
Rush Attempts
16
37
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
20%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.96
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
45
44
Penalty EPA
-3.58
-6.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,344
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+44.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
-46.2
Home QB Adjustment
-63.1
Away QB Adjustment
-16.8
Market Regression
+43.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
Value
Ptile
09/10
-8.3
8
09/18
-0.2
47
10/01
-4.0
25
10/08
-0.4
46
10/15
-3.1
28
10/29
-2.5
32
11/05
-7.6
10
T. Bagent headshot

T. Bagent

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-63.1
Value
Ptile
10/22
1.0
55
10/29
-2.3
33
11/05
0.2
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Panthers logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
31
19
Yards / Game
32
12
Passing Yards / Game
28
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1

EPA

EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
18
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
11
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
4
RZ Efficiency
21
31
Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Bears logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
29
Yards / Game
21
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
23

EPA

EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
25
17
EPA / Rush
3
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
14
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-6
L
L
O
01/08
3
W
W
U
09/10
-14
L
L
U
09/18
-3
L
P
U
09/24
-10
L
L
O
10/01
-8
L
L
U
10/08
-18
L
L
O
10/15
-21
L
L
O
10/29
2
W
W
U
11/05
-14
L
L
U
CHI logo

Bears

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
-16
L
L
U
09/10
-18
L
L
O
09/17
-10
L
L
O
09/24
-31
L
L
O
10/01
-3
L
P
O
10/05
20
W
W
O
10/15
-6
L
L
U
10/22
18
W
W
O
10/29
-17
L
L
U
11/05
-7
L
W
U