CARPanthers
1-7
13
TBD
Soldier Field
51°F
8 mph
16
CHIBears
2-7
TBD
Soldier Field
51°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
1
3
0
3
7
Bears
3
6
7
0
16
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
295
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
3.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.15
Passing Yards
170
--
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.22
-0.06
Rushing Yards
43
133
Rush Attempts
16
37
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
21
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
20%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.96
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
45
44
Penalty EPA
-3.58
-6.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,401
Away nfelo
1,344
Home Field
+51.6
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
-45.5
Home QB Adjustment
-62.4
Away QB Adjustment
-16.9
Market Regression
+43.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-16.9
T. Bagent
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-62.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
19
Yards / Game
32
12
Passing Yards / Game
28
9
Rushing Yards / Game
20
1
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
18
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
11
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
21
4
RZ Efficiency
21
31
Bears Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
29
Yards / Game
21
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
2
23
EPA
EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
25
17
EPA / Rush
3
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
14
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U