CARPanthers
3-2
37
TBD
Paycor Stadium
60°F
5 mph
37
CINBengals
3-1
TBD
Paycor Stadium
60°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Panthers
7
3
14
10
3
37
Bengals
0
17
0
17
3
37
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
513
Total Plays
80
75
Yards / Play
5.4
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.22
Passing Yards
--
320
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
33/43(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.24
Rushing Yards
147
193
Rush Attempts
34
31
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
29
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
47%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
8
10
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
57%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.96
-10.77
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-1.34
Penalties
8
13
Penalty Yards
60
119
Penalty EPA
-7.85
-14.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model69.1%
Spread Pick
Panthers+7.0
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,477
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-57.0
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+67.6
Market Regression
+5.8
Final Difference
140.0
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+67.6
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
15
23
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20
EPA
EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
19
13
EPA / Rush
11
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
14
28
Turnover EPA / Game
12
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
25
7
Bengals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
20
Yards / Game
18
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
6
11
EPA
EPA / Play
15
16
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
3
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
18
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U