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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ bengals week 6, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
3-2
37
TBD
Paycor Stadium
60°F
5 mph
37
CINBengals
3-1
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
60°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Panthers
7
3
14
10
3
37
Bengals
0
17
0
17
3
37

Spread

CAR logo
+7

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
431
513
Total Plays
80
75
Yards / Play
5.4
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.22
Passing Yards
--
320
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
33/43(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.24
Rushing Yards
147
193
Rush Attempts
34
31
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
29
29
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
47%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
8
10
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
57%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
4
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.96
-10.77
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-1.34
Penalties
8
13
Penalty Yards
60
119
Penalty EPA
-7.85
-14.19

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model69.2%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,556
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-57.0
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
+67.6
Market Regression
+6.3
Final Difference
140.8
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+67.6
Value
Ptile
12/01
6.9
90
12/08
-1.4
43
12/15
1.4
60
12/22
-5.7
16
12/29
0.3
52
01/12
-2.4
37
09/14
1.1
58
09/21
0.9
56
09/28
-1.4
40
10/05
-1.5
39
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Value
Ptile
12/01
-1.6
41
12/08
9.3
95
12/15
2.7
69
12/22
9.2
94
12/29
0.8
55
01/05
-2.3
37
09/07
4.6
80
09/14
1.9
65
09/21
-2.4
33
10/05
3.1
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Panthers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
19
13
Yards / Game
15
23
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20

EPA

EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
19
13
EPA / Rush
11
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
14
28
Turnover EPA / Game
12
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
25
7
Bengals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Bengals logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
20
Yards / Game
18
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
6
11

EPA

EPA / Play
15
16
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
3
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
18
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
10
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-18
L
L
U
12/15
10
W
P
O
12/22
4
W
W
U
12/29
1
W
L
U
01/12
-13
L
L
U
09/07
6
W
W
U
09/14
17
W
W
U
09/21
-18
L
L
O
09/28
-28
L
L
O
10/05
7
W
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
14
W
W
O
12/15
-10
L
L
O
12/22
28
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
O
01/05
-17
L
L
U
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/14
14
W
W
U
09/21
26
W
W
U
10/05
-26
L
L
O