CARPanthers
2-6
21
TBD
Paycor Stadium
68°F
11 mph
42
CINBengals
4-4
TBD
Paycor Stadium
68°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
0
7
14
21
Bengals
7
28
7
0
42
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
228
464
Total Plays
48
72
Yards / Play
4.8
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.29
Passing Yards
--
223
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
25/31(81%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.32
Rushing Yards
64
241
Rush Attempts
18
39
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
30
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
19
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
6
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.56
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-2.91
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
50
35
Penalty EPA
-3.15
-3.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model78.2%
Spread Pick
Bengals-7.0
Expected Value
+16.3%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+52.8
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+63.2
Home QB Adjustment
+18.9
Away QB Adjustment
-44.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
222.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
P. Walker
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-44.2
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
10
5
EPA
EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
7
Interceptions / Game
15
15
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Bengals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
11
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18
EPA
EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
4
23
EPA / Rush
18
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bengals
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
2-7-1
O/U