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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ bengals week 9, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
2-6
21
TBD
Paycor Stadium
68°F
11 mph
42
CINBengals
4-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
68°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
0
7
14
21
Bengals
7
28
7
0
42

Spread

CIN logo
-7

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
228
464
Total Plays
48
72
Yards / Play
4.8
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.29
Passing Yards
--
223
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
25/31(81%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.32
Rushing Yards
64
241
Rush Attempts
18
39
Yards / Rush
3.6
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.44
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
13
30
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
19
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
25%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
6
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.56
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
--
-2.91
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
50
35
Penalty EPA
-3.15
-3.47

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model78.0%
Spread Pick
CIN logo
Bengals-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.4%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+260
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,414
Home Field
+52.8
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+63.2
Home QB Adjustment
+18.9
Away QB Adjustment
-44.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
220.0
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

P. Walker headshot

P. Walker

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-44.2
Value
Ptile
11/22
-4.0
19
11/14
-1.9
39
10/16
-6.0
13
10/23
2.3
71
10/30
-1.6
42
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
Value
Ptile
01/30
-0.3
51
02/13
-3.0
31
09/11
-5.2
16
09/18
-2.2
35
09/25
1.7
65
09/29
3.1
76
10/09
-0.4
49
10/16
10.0
96
10/23
13.5
99
10/31
-1.8
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Panthers logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
10
5

EPA

EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
9
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
7
Interceptions / Game
15
15
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Bengals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Bengals logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
17
Yards / Game
11
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
18

EPA

EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
4
23
EPA / Rush
18
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
13
24
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
32
9
RZ Efficiency
7
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-8
L
L
U
01/09
-24
L
L
O
09/11
-2
L
L
O
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
8
W
W
U
10/02
-10
L
L
U
10/09
-22
L
L
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
18
W
W
U
10/30
-3
L
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/30
3
W
W
U
02/13
-3
L
W
U
09/11
-3
L
L
U
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
15
W
W
U
09/29
12
W
W
U
10/09
-2
L
W
U
10/16
4
W
W
O
10/23
18
W
W
O
10/31
-19
L
L
P