CARPanthers
5-8
14
TBD
New Era Field
30°F
8 mph
31
BUFBills
7-6
TBD
New Era Field
30°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
8
0
6
14
Bills
0
17
7
7
31
Spread
-14.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
277
312
Total Plays
73
65
Yards / Play
3.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.08
Passing Yards
126
193
Comp/Att
18/39(46%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.20
Rushing Yards
151
119
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
41%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.17
-3.52
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-32
-17
Sack EPA
-8.16
-2.62
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
--
67
Penalty EPA
--
-5.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+295
Home nfelo
1,674
Away nfelo
1,415
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+20.7
Market Regression
+64.1
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
1
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
20
16
EPA
EPA / Play
32
3
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
17
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
32
4
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Bills Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
5
2
Passing Yards / Game
30
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18
EPA
EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
1
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
19
27
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U