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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ bills week 15, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
5-8
14
TBD
New Era Field
30°F
8 mph
31
BUFBills
7-6
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
30°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
8
0
6
14
Bills
0
17
7
7
31

Spread

BUF logo
-14.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
277
312
Total Plays
73
65
Yards / Play
3.8
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.08
Passing Yards
126
193
Comp/Att
18/39(46%)
19/34(56%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.20
Rushing Yards
151
119
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
41%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.17
-3.52
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-32
-17
Sack EPA
-8.16
-2.62
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
--
67
Penalty EPA
--
-5.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+302
Home nfelo
1,677
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+20.7
Market Regression
+64.1
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
Value
Ptile
11/22
1.7
56
11/29
-11.5
2
12/06
1.4
54
12/10
-8.3
6
12/20
-2.3
27
12/28
-3.7
21
01/03
5.3
79
11/21
5.6
86
11/28
-13.7
1
12/12
-2.7
33
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Value
Ptile
10/03
2.1
69
10/10
9.6
96
10/18
4.9
83
10/31
8.9
95
11/07
-5.3
17
11/14
2.3
70
11/21
-2.4
35
11/25
5.8
87
12/06
-0.5
49
12/12
10.2
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Bills Defense
Panthers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
29
1
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
20
16

EPA

EPA / Play
32
3
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
17
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
32
Interceptions / Game
32
4
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
15
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Bills Offense vs Panthers Defense
Bills logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
5
2
Passing Yards / Game
30
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18

EPA

EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
1
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
19
27
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
18
RZ Efficiency
2
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-8
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-6
L
L
O
10/24
-22
L
L
U
10/31
6
W
W
U
11/07
-18
L
L
U
11/14
24
W
W
O
11/21
-6
L
L
O
11/28
-23
L
L
O
12/12
-8
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
40
W
W
U
10/10
18
W
W
O
10/18
-3
L
L
O
10/31
15
W
P
U
11/07
-3
L
L
U
11/14
28
W
W
O
11/21
-26
L
L
O
11/25
25
W
W
U
12/06
-4
L
L
U
12/12
-6
L
L
O