CARPanthers
1-9
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
5 mph
24
CLEBrowns
3-7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
39°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
6
1
3
17
Browns
14
7
0
3
24
Spread
+8
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
379
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
5.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.08
Passing Yards
175
227
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.38
Rushing Yards
151
152
Rush Attempts
27
32
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.26
-17.93
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-20
-18
Sack EPA
-4.03
-1.63
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
68
46
Penalty EPA
-10.97
-6.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,387
Away nfelo
1,283
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-35.5
Home QB Adjustment
-25.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.0
Market Regression
-27.7
Final Difference
194.0
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
J. Clausen
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
J. Delhomme
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-25.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
32
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
11
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26
EPA
EPA / Play
32
23
EPA / Pass
32
25
EPA / Rush
32
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
16
Interceptions / Game
27
8
Fumbles / Game
30
17
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
18
31
RZ Efficiency
32
8
Browns Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
25
Yards / Game
30
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
21
Rushing Yards / Game
21
23
EPA
EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
27
12
EPA / Rush
22
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
19
11
Fumbles / Game
13
10
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
14
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
27
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U