CARPanthers
-
10
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
83°F
15 mph
16
TBBuccaneers
-
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
83°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
0
7
3
10
Buccaneers
10
3
0
3
16
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
258
Total Plays
49
62
Yards / Play
6.1
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.06
Passing Yards
291
128
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.15
Rushing Yards
10
130
Rush Attempts
13
36
Yards / Rush
0.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.56
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.26
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-10
Sack EPA
-2.72
-3.55
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
65
35
Penalty EPA
-6.75
-5.07
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-67
Home nfelo
1,411
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.6
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
23
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
1
EPA
EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
6
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
26
Interceptions / Game
7
9
Fumbles / Game
7
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
10
17
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
16
13
EPA
EPA / Play
15
22
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
9
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
15
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
3
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
7
4th Down Efficiency
23
20
RZ Efficiency
8
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
6-4
O/U