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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ buccaneers week 1, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
-
20
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
6 mph
14
TBBuccaneers
-
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
10
0
10
20
Buccaneers
0
0
0
14
14

Spread

CAR logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
334
264
Total Plays
68
55
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.17
Passing Yards
221
162
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
22/35(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.30
Rushing Yards
113
102
Rush Attempts
33
17
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.0
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-14.63
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-2.34
-5.20
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
55
15
Penalty EPA
-7.62
-1.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model59.9%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.3%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+19
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+67.6
Home QB Adjustment
+18.6
Away QB Adjustment
-49.0
Market Regression
+75.3
Final Difference
69.7
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-49.0
Value
Ptile
01/03
-6.0
14
09/12
1.2
56
09/19
-7.3
9
09/26
-4.1
23
10/03
-10.2
4
11/07
-4.8
18
11/14
-4.2
22
11/21
0.7
53
11/29
-5.5
15
12/05
-8.2
6
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.6
Value
Ptile
12/09
-3.9
25
12/16
0.2
51
12/23
-4.6
21
12/25
1.9
65
01/01
-8.8
3
11/04
3.6
75
11/17
-0.2
49
11/24
8.2
92
12/01
1.9
63
12/09
12.6
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
20
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18

EPA

EPA / Play
17
24
EPA / Pass
19
28
EPA / Rush
11
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
3
Interceptions / Game
14
16
Fumbles / Game
14
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
24
RZ Efficiency
25
29
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
20
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11

EPA

EPA / Play
29
16
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
25
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
14
Interceptions / Game
31
15
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
18
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
24
W
W
U
11/10
1
W
W
U
11/18
4
W
W
U
11/24
4
W
L
U
12/01
21
W
W
U
12/08
-18
L
L
U
12/15
10
W
P
O
12/22
4
W
W
U
12/29
1
W
L
U
01/12
-13
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-18
L
L
O
11/03
-3
L
W
O
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/01
-21
L
L
U
12/08
21
W
W
U
12/15
-19
L
L
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-25
L
L
O