CARPanthers
3-0
37
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
74°F
5 mph
23
TBBuccaneers
1-2
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
74°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
4
7
14
6
31
Buccaneers
3
7
7
6
23
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
411
Total Plays
57
75
Yards / Play
4.3
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.24
Passing Yards
111
270
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.35
Rushing Yards
133
141
Rush Attempts
33
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.04
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
40%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.56
-26.94
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-17
Sack EPA
-2.43
-3.89
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
45
48
Penalty EPA
+10.54
-7.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-80
Home nfelo
1,375
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+18.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
17
25
Rushing Yards / Game
2
9
EPA
EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
7
27
EPA / Rush
3
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
26
5
Turnover EPA / Game
22
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
30
4th Down Efficiency
9
27
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
6
Yards / Game
4
5
Passing Yards / Game
24
20
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4
EPA
EPA / Play
20
2
EPA / Pass
13
2
EPA / Rush
13
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
19
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
21
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
9
4th Down Efficiency
11
25
RZ Efficiency
23
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U