CARPanthers
1-3
28
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
64°F
17 mph
21
TBBuccaneers
0-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
64°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
7
14
7
28
Buccaneers
7
0
7
1
15
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
245
Total Plays
66
46
Yards / Play
4.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.18
Passing Yards
55
121
Comp/Att
9/17(53%)
11/17(65%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.57
-0.24
Rushing Yards
267
124
Rush Attempts
48
25
Yards / Rush
5.6
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
5
5
Rushing 1st downs
16
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
57%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-13.32
-10.83
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-10
-26
Sack EPA
-1.43
-3.82
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-2.00
-4.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-102
Home nfelo
1,380
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.3
Home QB Adjustment
-43.2
Away QB Adjustment
-13.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Delhomme
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
J. Johnson
Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-43.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
27
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
22
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32
EPA
EPA / Play
22
19
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
8
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
9
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
25
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
23
EPA
EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
24
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
31
6
Fumbles / Game
2
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
6
4th Down Efficiency
23
21
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-2-5
O/U