CARPanthers
3-3
31
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
5 mph
13
TBBuccaneers
0-6
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
70°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
7
10
31
Buccaneers
3
3
0
7
13
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
297
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
5.2
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.27
-0.07
Passing Yards
195
249
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
30/51(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.10
-0.11
Rushing Yards
129
48
Rush Attempts
27
14
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.36
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
42%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.88
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-26
-26
Sack EPA
-4.16
-4.04
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
59
21
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-2.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model68.2%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+7.0
Expected Value
+8.2%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-95
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
-4.2
Final Difference
-132.4
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
21
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
15
EPA
EPA / Play
13
18
EPA / Pass
15
18
EPA / Rush
5
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
30
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
2
23
RZ Efficiency
15
9
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
2
Yards / Game
32
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3
EPA
EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
26
5
EPA / Rush
24
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
9
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
17
9
Turnover EPA / Game
26
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
22
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U