CARPanthers
1-7
16
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
73°F
7 mph
31
TBBuccaneers
5-3
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
73°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
7
6
0
16
Buccaneers
7
14
0
10
31
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
421
Total Plays
62
55
Yards / Play
4.8
7.7
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.19
Passing Yards
182
235
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
9.8
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.57
Rushing Yards
118
186
Rush Attempts
31
30
Yards / Rush
3.8
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.29
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
40%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-0.60
-5.23
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-6
Sack EPA
-3.22
-1.69
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
71
80
Penalty EPA
-7.80
-8.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
Panthers+7.0
Expected Value
+12.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,379
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+17.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.8
Market Regression
-55.2
Final Difference
107.8
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Clausen
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Value
Ptile
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
32
15
Passing Yards / Game
30
1
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28
EPA
EPA / Play
32
22
EPA / Pass
32
14
EPA / Rush
32
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
23
Interceptions / Game
27
8
Fumbles / Game
30
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
30
4th Down Efficiency
18
21
RZ Efficiency
32
19
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
24
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
17
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U