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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ buccaneers week 13, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CAR logo
CARPanthers
3-8
38
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
13 mph
19
TBBuccaneers
4-7
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
14
10
7
7
38
Buccaneers
3
9
0
7
19

Spread

CAR logo
-1

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
385
285
Total Plays
63
56
Yards / Play
6.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.02
Passing Yards
222
207
Comp/Att
13/22(59%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.60
+0.08
Rushing Yards
163
78
Rush Attempts
39
27
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
26
15
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
55%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
5
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.35
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-22
Sack EPA
-2.10
-5.50
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
--
73
Penalty EPA
--
-9.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-140.6
Home QB Adjustment
-110.6
Away QB Adjustment
+30.1
Market Regression
-34.8
Final Difference
-27.5
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+30.1
Value
Ptile
09/18
3.5
74
09/25
-0.2
50
10/02
9.3
96
10/09
2.8
71
10/16
-1.7
38
10/23
6.4
87
10/30
7.0
90
11/13
-4.7
20
11/20
1.7
64
11/27
2.5
70
J. Johnson headshot

J. Johnson

Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-110.6
Value
Ptile
10/04
-3.3
29
10/11
-2.7
34
10/18
-4.5
22
10/25
-8.4
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32

EPA

EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
1
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24

EPA

EPA / Play
27
31
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
29
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
17
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-7
L
W
O
09/25
6
W
W
U
10/02
-5
L
W
O
10/09
-3
L
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
13
W
W
O
10/30
-3
L
L
U
11/13
-27
L
L
U
11/20
-14
L
L
O
11/27
8
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
3
W
W
U
10/03
7
W
L
O
10/09
-45
L
L
O
10/16
6
W
W
U
10/23
-6
L
L
U
11/06
-11
L
L
U
11/13
-28
L
L
O
11/20
-9
L
W
O
11/27
-6
L
L
U