CARPanthers
3-8
38
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
13 mph
19
TBBuccaneers
4-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
79°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
14
10
7
7
38
Buccaneers
3
9
0
7
19
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
285
Total Plays
63
56
Yards / Play
6.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.37
+0.02
Passing Yards
222
207
Comp/Att
13/22(59%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.60
+0.08
Rushing Yards
163
78
Rush Attempts
39
27
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
15
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
55%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
5
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.35
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-22
Sack EPA
-2.10
-5.50
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
--
73
Penalty EPA
--
-9.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-70
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-140.6
Home QB Adjustment
-110.6
Away QB Adjustment
+30.1
Market Regression
-35.4
Final Difference
-27.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+30.1
J. Johnson
Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-110.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
3
32
EPA
EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
1
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
21
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
20
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
14
25
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24
EPA
EPA / Play
27
31
EPA / Pass
24
32
EPA / Rush
29
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
26
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U