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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ buccaneers week 13, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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CAR logo
CARPanthers
1-10
18
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
8 mph
21
TBBuccaneers
4-7
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
3
7
8
18
Buccaneers
7
0
7
7
21

Spread

CAR logo
+4

Total

OVER
37

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
284
322
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
4.1
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.11
Passing Yards
149
194
Comp/Att
15/31(48%)
14/29(48%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.13
Rushing Yards
135
128
Rush Attempts
35
28
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.82
-2.16
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
-8
Sack EPA
-6.79
-2.13
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
62
36
Penalty EPA
-6.07
-2.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,331
Home Field
+24.7
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
-20.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.8
Home QB Adjustment
-13.8
Away QB Adjustment
-29.6
Market Regression
+6.1
Final Difference
137.1
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-29.6
Value
Ptile
09/10
-8.3
8
09/18
-0.2
47
10/01
-4.0
25
10/08
-0.4
46
10/15
-3.1
28
10/29
-2.5
32
11/05
-7.6
10
11/09
-5.8
15
11/19
-10.4
2
11/26
-4.1
23
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
Value
Ptile
09/17
6.2
87
09/25
-4.7
21
10/01
7.0
91
10/15
-5.4
17
10/22
-0.5
46
10/26
2.1
64
11/05
2.6
68
11/12
-0.2
48
11/19
-2.5
32
11/26
-4.6
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Panthers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4

EPA

EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
30
22
EPA / Rush
18
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
13
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
22
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
21
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
23

EPA

EPA / Play
13
27
EPA / Pass
8
17
EPA / Rush
30
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
27
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
1-7-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-3
L
P
U
09/24
-10
L
L
O
10/01
-8
L
L
U
10/08
-18
L
L
O
10/15
-21
L
L
O
10/29
2
W
W
U
11/05
-14
L
L
U
11/09
-3
L
P
U
11/19
-23
L
L
P
11/26
-7
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
10
W
W
O
09/25
-14
L
L
U
10/01
17
W
W
U
10/15
-14
L
L
U
10/22
-3
L
L
U
10/26
-6
L
W
U
11/05
-2
L
W
O
11/12
14
W
W
U
11/19
-13
L
W
U
11/26
-7
L
L
O