CARPanthers
1-10
18
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
8 mph
21
TBBuccaneers
4-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
81°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
3
7
8
18
Buccaneers
7
0
7
7
21
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
322
Total Plays
70
58
Yards / Play
4.1
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.11
Passing Yards
149
194
Comp/Att
15/31(48%)
14/29(48%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.13
Rushing Yards
135
128
Rush Attempts
35
28
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
15
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.82
-2.16
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
-8
Sack EPA
-6.79
-2.13
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
62
36
Penalty EPA
-6.07
-2.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model68.6%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers-4.0
Expected Value
+4.0%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,333
Home Field
+24.8
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
-20.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.9
Home QB Adjustment
-13.9
Away QB Adjustment
-29.8
Market Regression
+5.1
Final Difference
136.0
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-29.8
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4
EPA
EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
30
22
EPA / Rush
18
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
13
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
22
4th Down Efficiency
21
7
RZ Efficiency
21
3
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
31
23
EPA
EPA / Play
13
27
EPA / Pass
8
17
EPA / Rush
30
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
27
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
1-9
SU
1-7-2
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U