CARPanthers
4-11
14
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
76°F
8 mph
48
TBBuccaneers
8-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
76°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
7
7
0
0
14
Buccaneers
10
17
8
7
42
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
204
551
Total Plays
46
74
Yards / Play
4.4
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.39
Passing Yards
165
349
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
27/32(84%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
10.9
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.79
Rushing Yards
39
202
Rush Attempts
13
40
Yards / Rush
3.0
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
33
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
22%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
63%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
8
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-38
-10
Sack EPA
-10.20
-2.98
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-3.87
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+217
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,355
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.9
Home QB Adjustment
+28.2
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
+27.6
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
B. Young
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+28.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
30
25
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
24
18
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
9
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
13
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
24
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
7
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
21
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
19
19
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
4
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U