CARPanthers
0-2
38
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
020
ARICardinals
0-1
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
0
14
14
10
38
Cardinals
7
3
10
0
20
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
413
248
Total Plays
59
73
Yards / Play
7.0
3.4
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.10
Passing Yards
240
127
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
3.0
EPA / Pass
+0.53
-0.35
Rushing Yards
173
121
Rush Attempts
31
22
Yards / Rush
5.6
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
+0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
40%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.75
-8.99
Sacks
2
8
Sack Yards
-21
-46
Sack EPA
-7.91
-8.93
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
35
52
Penalty EPA
-3.95
-6.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model56.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,384
Away nfelo
1,500
Home Field
+77.4
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.4
Net QB Adjustment
+141.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.2
Away QB Adjustment
-134.2
Market Regression
+15.1
Final Difference
44.3
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Allen
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-134.2
Value
Ptile
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
28
Yards / Game
21
32
Passing Yards / Game
7
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23
EPA
EPA / Play
29
28
EPA / Pass
28
30
EPA / Rush
20
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
30
30
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
15
22
Cardinals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
31
Yards / Game
22
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
26
Rushing Yards / Game
10
30
EPA
EPA / Play
17
25
EPA / Pass
19
17
EPA / Rush
5
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
16
10
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
2
31
RZ Efficiency
30
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
1-8-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U