CARPanthers
1-2
6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
022
ARICardinals
2-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
3
3
0
0
6
Cardinals
0
3
7
10
20
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
250
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
5.3
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.10
Passing Yards
258
160
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.51
-0.10
Rushing Yards
95
90
Rush Attempts
20
28
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
42%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
3
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-21.17
-13.36
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-50
-15
Sack EPA
-18.08
-2.70
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
79
30
Penalty EPA
-6.54
-4.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+36.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+1.5
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-52.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
6
Yards / Game
26
6
Passing Yards / Game
25
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
1
EPA
EPA / Play
13
2
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
5
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
18
Interceptions / Game
14
5
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
30
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
8
RZ Efficiency
15
14
Cardinals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
2
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
3
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
19
5
EPA / Rush
26
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
4
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
12
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
24
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U