CARPanthers
4-9
31
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
6 mph
7
LACChargers
5-8
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
21
3
7
0
31
Chargers
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
164
Total Plays
74
45
Yards / Play
5.0
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.30
Passing Yards
217
94
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.63
Rushing Yards
155
70
Rush Attempts
39
16
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
12
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.38
-10.69
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-14
-27
Sack EPA
-2.57
-15.41
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
48
70
Penalty EPA
-4.60
-11.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-40.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.9
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Panthers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
13
9
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5
EPA
EPA / Play
12
9
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
6
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Chargers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
18
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
13
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
20
16
EPA / Rush
28
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
23
3
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
7
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
26
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Panthers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U