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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. panthers @ chargers week 15, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CAR logo
CARPanthers
4-9
31
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
6 mph
7
LACChargers
5-8
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Panthers
21
3
7
0
31
Chargers
0
0
0
7
7

Spread

CAR logo
+3

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Panthers logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
372
164
Total Plays
74
45
Yards / Play
5.0
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.30
Passing Yards
217
94
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
16/23(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.63
Rushing Yards
155
70
Rush Attempts
39
16
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Panthers logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
29
12
Passing 1st downs
12
4
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Panthers logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.38
-10.69
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-14
-27
Sack EPA
-2.57
-15.41
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
48
70
Penalty EPA
-4.60
-11.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+71
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-40.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.9
Value
Ptile
09/30
8.4
93
10/07
-5.1
18
10/21
1.7
61
10/28
-1.0
42
11/04
3.8
73
11/11
-7.3
9
11/18
0.2
51
11/26
9.6
96
12/02
7.4
91
12/09
15.3
100
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-13.4
Value
Ptile
09/30
-0.4
47
10/07
-0.7
44
10/15
-7.9
6
10/28
-3.9
25
11/01
2.9
69
11/11
4.5
79
11/18
-3.1
29
11/25
-3.0
30
12/02
-3.5
27
12/09
2.9
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Panthers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Panthers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
15
Yards / Game
13
9
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5

EPA

EPA / Play
12
9
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
6
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
3
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Chargers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Chargers logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
19
18
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
13
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
13

EPA

EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
20
16
EPA / Rush
28
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
23
3
Turnover EPA / Game
18
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
7
4th Down Efficiency
14
20
RZ Efficiency
26
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CAR logo

Panthers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-4
L
L
U
10/21
-5
L
L
U
10/28
-1
L
W
O
11/04
8
W
W
U
11/11
-22
L
L
O
11/18
-6
L
L
O
11/26
8
W
W
O
12/02
-6
L
L
O
12/09
10
W
W
O
LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
17
W
W
O
10/07
-7
L
L
O
10/15
-11
L
L
O
10/28
-1
L
L
U
11/01
18
W
W
O
11/11
-10
L
L
O
11/18
-7
L
W
O
11/25
-3
L
L
U
12/02
-7
L
L
U
12/09
10
W
W
O